ADOLPHE
QUETELET
in
1835 first applied the normal distribution to biological and behavioral traits
rather than merely to measurement error, describing the concept of "the
average man"; he also invented the Quetelet Index which today we usually
refer to as the Body Mass Index (BMI).
Lambert
Adolphe Jacques Quetelet, b. 22 February 1796 in Ghent, French Empire, (now
Belgium), d. 17 February 1874 in Brussels, Belgium
from
Wikipedia:
His
most influential book was Sur l'homme et
le dˇveloppement de ses facultˇs, ou Essai de physique sociale, published
in 1835 (In English translation, it is titled Treatise on Man, but a literal
translation would be "On Man and the Development of his Faculties, or
Essays on Social Physics"). In it, he outlines the project of a social
physics and describes his concept of the "average man" (l'homme
moyen) who is characterized by the mean values of measured variables that
follow a normal distribution. He collected data about many such variables.
When
Auguste Comte discovered that Quetelet had appropriated the term 'social
physics', which Comte had originally introduced, Comte found it necessary to
invent the term 'sociologie' (sociology) because he disagreed with Quetelet's
notion that a theory of society could be derived from a collection of
statistics.
...
In
his 1835 text on social physics, in which he presented his theory of human
variance around the average, with human traits being distributed according to a
normal curve, he proposed that normal variation provided a basis for the idea
that populations produce sufficient variation for artificial or natural selection
to operate.
In
terms of influence over later public health agendas, one of Quetelet's lasting
legacies was the establishment of a simple measure for classifying people's
weight relative to an ideal for their height. His proposal, the body mass index
(or Quetelet index), has endured with minor variations to the present day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolphe_Quetelet
from
Sur l'homme et le developpement de ses
facultˇs, essai d'une physique sociale (1835) [On man and the development
of his faculties: an essay on social physics]:
The
constancy with which the same crimes repeat themselves every year with the same
frequency and provoke the same punishment in the same ratios, is one of the
most curious facts we learn from the statistics of the courts; I have stressed
it in several papers; I have repeated every year: There is an account paid with
a terrifying regularity; that of the prisons, the galleys, and the scaffolds.
This one must be reduced. And every year the numbers have confirmed my
prevision in a way that I can even say: there is a tribute man pays more
regularly than those owed to nature or to the Treasury; the tribute paid to
crime! Sad condition of human race! We can tell beforehand how many will stain
their hands with the blood of their fellow creatures, how many will be forgers,
how many poisoners, almost as one can foretell the number of births and deaths.
Society
contains the germs of all the crimes that will be committed, as well as the
conditions under which they can develop. It is society that, in a sense,
prepares the ground for them, and the criminal is the instrument ...
This
observation, which seems discouraging at first sight, is comforting at closer
view, since it shows the possibility of improving people by modifying their institutions,
their habits, their education, and all that influences their behaviour. This is
in principle nothing but an extension of the law well-known to philosophers: as
long as the causes are unchanged, one has to expect the same effects.
http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/history/Extras/Quetelet_crime.html
from
Instructions populaires sur le calcul des
probabilitˇs (1828) [Popular instructions on the calculation of
probabilities]:
The
more advanced the sciences have become, the more they have tended to enter the
domain of mathematics, which is a sort of centre towards which they converge.
We can judge of the perfection to which a science has come by the facility,
more or less great, with which it may be approached by calculation.
It
seems to me that the theory of probabilities ought to serve as the basis for
the study of all the sciences, and particularly of the sciences of observation.
Since
absolute certainty is impossible, and we can speak only of the probability of
the fulfillment of a scientific expectation, a study of this theory should be a
part of every man's education.
Chance,
that mysterious, much abused word, should be considered only a veil for our
ignorance; it is a phantom which exercises the most absolute empire over the
common mind, accustomed to consider events only as isolated, but which is
reduced to naught before the philosopher, whose eye embraces a long series of
events and whose penetration is not led astray by variations, which disappear
when he gives himself sufficient perspective to seize the laws of nature.
http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/history/Biographies/Quetelet.html
from
Recherches sur le Penchant au Crime aux
Diffˇrens åges (1831) [Research on the propensity for crime at different
ages]:
It
seems to me that that which relates to the human species, considered en masse,
is of the order of physical facts: the greater the number of individuals, the
more the influence of the individual will is effaced, being replaced by the
series of general facts that depend on the general causes according to which
society exists and maintains itself. These are the causes we seek to grasp, and
when we do know them, we shall be able to ascertain their effects in social
matters, just as we ascertain effects from causes in the physical sciences.
http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/history/Biographies/Quetelet.html
from
Adolphe Quetelet as statistician, by
Frank Hamilton Hankins (1908):
Quetelet's
personality is represented as most winning. Modest and generous, convinced but
respectful of others' opinions, always calm and considerate, a man of broad
learning and an attractive conversationalist, he won and kept friends wherever
he went. A man of excellent tact as well as of tremendous enthusiasm, he
readily enlisted support for many schemes of cooperative scientific endeavor. A
man of wide intellectual interests, and at the same time, endowed with a
prodigious capacity for labor, he contributed to the advancement of several
sciences, aroused anew the entire intellectual life of his country and
stimulated the activity of artists and scientists throughout the world. Until
the attack [stroke] of 1855, he is represented as always animated and genial,
fond of wit and laughter. [quoting another author:] "Rabelais was almost
as dear to him as Pascal."
His
home life was of marked beauty and serenity. He found great pleasure in his two
children, and the astronomical ability of his son [who succeeded him as
Director of the Brussels Observatory] was a source of great pride to him.
Quetelet was himself a modest musician, and his wife an accomplished one.
Friends were regularly entertained at dinner on Sundays, and Sunday evenings
were usually given over to music and charades. Personally acquainted with the
leading scientists of his time, he exercised the most generous hospitality in
the home at the Observatory. Distinguished men, coming to Belgium from any of
the European capitals or centers of learning, brought letters of introduction
to Quetelet and were always assured a gracious reception by him. One of the
speakers at his funeral said of him, "as a man of science he was admired;
in political affairs he was respected; in private life he was beloved."